Probable Future

COVID19, Robots, Artificial Intelligence and the future of Australian Society. 

In relation to recent comments about the Australian “economy” and the budget, it is necessary to acknowledge that the “economy” is actually the people, the citizens, of Australia. Without people, there would be no “economy” and therefor by default no need for a budget (in surplus or otherwise). Pursuing the logic of this it would seem very obvious that people are the important factor – look after people, first and foremost.

Now, I understand that many are considering the benefits of either a Universal Basic Income (UBI) or Negative Income Tax (NIT) to counteract the economic effects of the current COVID19 pandemic. There is also the effect of Robotics and the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to consider, that will also have long term effects on the economy and society (people) here in Australia.

It would appear to be indisputable that the robotic and AI future has implications not only for commerce and industry but more especially for society in general. Many of the jobs that have been lost in Australia to low wage countries will never return to these shores. The days of the old unskilled, labour intensive jobs are numbered; the mining industry has quickly adopted driverless ore trucks; there are advanced plans to use more driverless trains to transport iron ore; there are farmers using drones and driverless machinery and there are other uses of these technologies, now a reality, that were unimaginable just five years ago. 

Now COVID19 just adds to the confusion roiling world trade and the well-being of hundreds of millions of people.

The world is changing – what was, will no longer be – the status quo has evaporated. The vista of unending employment growth is no longer a likely, or even probable, future. 

While it must be acknowledged that not all jobs will be automated or impacted by AI – for those that are, restructuring workplaces, educating and retraining employers and the remaining employees to adapt to and manage the new technologies will be a necessary long term requirement. 

This is no light matter and needs to be seriously considered. If a large percentage of people in Australia  – or any country for that matter – become unemployed and are unable to see any possibility of future long-term employment, what are they supposed to do? 

The consensus is narrowing down to introducing either a UBI or an NIT.

Many, if not most politicians, and those in business may be horrified at such solutions – giving everyone, and I mean everyone – employed or unemployed – giving everyone a UBI or access to NIT. The universal basic income is already in place, as in Alaska a scheme similar to an NIT has been in place for years. 

In an economic environment that is unable to provide long term paid employment for all, there will be, as an urgent necessity - a requirement - for a population that is underpinned by a universal basic income or a negative income tax. This would open up the possibility of a life without poverty and reduce the vexed problems arising from income inequality.

The gross inequality of incomes world-wide resulting from current globalization impacts unfavourably on the health and well-being of millions of individuals (including here in Australia). Unless this is alleviated anger and frustration will consume many people and overwhelm governments. I am sure you will be aware that currently (2018 figures) the gap between the wages of the typical worker and that of the typical Australian CEO is at least 45 times the average fulltime wage. The disparity is much wider overseas. In the USA, where minimum wages are less than half of Australia’s and CEO salaries above $20 million are common, the difference is more than 200 times. This disparity is economically and socially unsustainable. 

Without some basic assistance it is suggested that people – millions of people – will swamp the Australian Government with pleas for help. If the Government adapts and is proactive it will plan for this eventuality and the only safe option is to pay everyone, repeat everyone – employed or not - pay them a Universal Basic Income or provide the benefits from a Negative Income Tax. There are no other viable options, particularly with an aging population. 

Many will object to such policies claiming they are unsustainable. They will, however, be outnumbered by the millions of educated, unemployed, destitute, poor, frustrated and angry people clamoring at their doors, clamoring for assistance. Clamoring to have enough money to just exist. Again the question needs to be asked, what else are they supposed to do? 

{Note: Negative Income Tax - For people who do not earn enough to pay tax (or earn below the minimum wage or some other agreed amount) their income would be supplemented to arrive at the agreed amount or the minimum wage. Everyone, working or not, would be obliged to lodge a tax return and any supplement would be “refunded” via the ATO, similar to the process for a normal tax refund.}

Both the UBI and NIT would do away with the plethora of welfare payments currently in place; both would be funded, it is suggested, by adjustments to current programs and/or adjustments to marginal tax rates, investment allowances (negative gearing and capital gains?) and corporate taxation, or possibly a very small (.001 percent) financial transaction levy (colloquially known as a “Tobin” Tax).

Any additional funding for the UBI or NIT involves a simple principle: go where the money is. “Since money has been increasing going to the top, that’s where the additional revenue will have to come from. It is really that simple.” (Quote is from The Price of Inequality (2013) by Joseph E. Stiglitz – former World Bank chief economist and 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics).

Political will aside – what is it that the future unemployed are supposed to live on?

I suggest this is the future - and it’s coming soon – get used to it. Plan for it. Now.  

Courage

This is not an easy topic to write about because courage is so difficult to define. Like love, we all know what it is but we can’t define it. We all know courage when we see it but that is about all. 

Courage has no boundaries; courage has no limitations; courage knows no gender; courage knows no age limit. And above all courage is not uniquely human. All creatures display courage in their own way and I think that is wonderful.

All mothers, well generally, all mothers – from all animate life forms - will defend their young and even die in the process. But of course courage is normally associated with bravery – generally in a military situation. This however is not always the case. 

Somehow, somewhere over the years I acquired a little book called “Courage”. It is actually a verbatim record of J. M. Barrie’s 1922 inaugural speech when he was appointed Rector of the University of St Andrews, in Scotland. Barrie was a novelist and playwright who authored “Peter Pan and Wendy” amongst many others. 

In this little book, “Courage”, Barrie is recorded as speaking about Capt. Robert Falcon Scott (Scott of the Antarctic) and that tragic if glorious failure to reach the South Pole first. But it was the courage of Captain Laurence (Titus) Oates, an ex-military man, and part of Scott’s sledge team that I find very moving. Oates had badly frostbitten feet that became gangrenous, causing him pain and discomfort. He realized that he was holding back their return to base, being unable to assist in pulling the sledge. So one day he informed his companions (in words that are etched in history), “I’m just going outside. I maybe some time.” He walked out of the tent into a -40C blizzard and was never seen again.

That is courage!

Then, for me, there is a more personal example of courage. My wife, Magucha, had been ill with renal failure since before I met her. But she never, ever, complained. She never asked, “Why me?” That was never her way. For most of the 36yrs of our marriage she was in and out of hospital, more times that I can remember, and everyday she had to take a fist full of medications. These kept her alive and gave her some quality of life, but in the end the accumulation of the significant side-effects of these medications was the cause of the acute pancreatitis that was too much for her little body to bear and she died five weeks later of general organ failure.

That too, is courage! 

As always I find that poetry expresses in very few words what takes me a whole page to express. I offer this in memory of Magucha and all courageous people: 

Finis Exoptatus (a rough translation “Desired End”)

Question not, but live and labour

   Till yon goal be won,

Helping every feeble neighbour,

   Seeking help from none;

Life is mostly froth and bubble,

   Two things stand like stone,

KINDNESS in another’s trouble,

   COURAGE in your own.

                                    Adam Lindsay Gordon

Born: October 19, 1833, Faial Island, Portugal

Died: June 24, 1870, Brighton

Buried: Brighton Cemetery, Melbourne

An earlier rendition - Magucha's bio - in her own words

From, “Travellers and Migrants”, by Andrea Witcomb. A publication produced by Community Access Gallery, Fremantle History Museum.

Magucha’s “Biography” based on an oral history interview, as recorded by Andrea Witcomb on 24^th September 1997.

{I have made minor corrections with spelling}. 

Maria Augusta Bandeira de Lima Campbell-Watt (Magucha) was born in Lourenco Marques (now called Maputo), the capital of Mozambique on 9^th May 1953. Her parents were both Portuguese. Her family had always travelled between the Portuguese colonies as her father’s family had been in the army and therefore they were frequently transferred from one place to another.

Her parents met when Magucha’s mother came to visit her sister in Nampula, in Mozambique. She was 25 years old. Magucha’s father was doing his military service in the same town of Nampula. They decided to live in Lourenco Marques where her mother developed her career as a radio announcer as well as an actress – both on radio and on the stage.

When Magucha was seven years old they went to Portugal for six months for a holiday. This was quite usual for colonial families. They met their grandparents for the first time. Her own father had not seen his family for twenty-two years and her mother had not been back to Lisbon for ten years.

Magucha recalls that, “When we got to Portugal, my mother decided she did not want to return to Mozambique. My father arranged a new job with an Angolan iron ore 

company which belonged to some cousins and then we transferred to Angola. 

The problem had been that my mother had ten years of fame while my father put his profession to one side to give my mother a chance to do well. My father worked at Sonape, a petroleum company. His work was really from nine to five so he could look after us and what was happening at home. We had maids, everyone had maids in Africa. But there was a need for someone to take responsibility because my mother worked all hours, it could be late at night or really early in the morning. So it was thought that it was my father’s turn to develop his career and for my mother to take a step back in hers. When we got to Angola she arranged some work as a radio announcer but only part-time. She didn’t work so many hours again.”

Magucha did her primary school in Mozambique, Portugal and Angola. Her high school was all in Angola. She decided she did not want to go to university so she went to Escola Industrial e Commercial (Industrial and Commercial School) where she took a secretarial course. She specifically chose not to do educacao feminine (feminine education). She wanted to go to work as soon as possible.

“When I finished I wanted to go to work but because I was very young my father did not let me. He sacked the maids and made me stay at home where I cleaned. I stayed for six months, for I did not like it. I said no, I am going back to school. So I did an exam and gained admission to the Industrial and Commercial Institute. I only did a year for I was offered a good job as ground hostess in what, at that time, was called the DTA. My father let me work this time as he knew the people involved and knew where I would be. Later in the same place I was offered a job as air-hostess which I accepted. It was really to teach Angolan people how to be hostesses. The airline had become an Angolan one. This was in 1971, 1972.”

After the revolution (1974), everyone was optimistic. But of course, problems soon began appearing: According to Magucha, “the principal problem in Angola was the fact that there were three different parties. No one knew who said what. If you wanted to remain together it was better not to belong to any group. It began to get a bit violent. We had to leave. I knew that there was a pilot who was going to escape with a plane. Our routes were Mocamedes, Windhoek, Sa da Bandeira, Luanda. So, his intention was to go to Mocamedes, Windhoek and not return. We arranged to fill the plane with family members. I escaped on that plane with my mother and youngest brother.”

When the plane reached Portugal they were put in a kind of prison for having hijacked the plane until the plane was returned to Angola and everything was all right. Magucha herself became sick and they used to let her out to get nursed. She stayed in Portugal for a while. In the meantime, her father and eldest brother made their way in a car convoy to South Africa. They eventually ended up in Rhodesia (Zimbabwe) where the Rhodesian government paid for their family to join them.

Rhodesia became Zimbabwe. At first it seemed to be a controlled changeover but the situation became threatening. Magucha herself was beaten on the street for being on the wrong side of the road when some guerrillas came through. This prompted her and her husband Andrew (a Scot* born in Durban, who grew up in Rhodesia) to leave Rhodesia. Magucha’s family had already left for Portugal as they did not want to go through a civil war again.

Andrew visited Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. He thought Perth was the most similar to Salisbury, the capital of Rhodesia. They decided to come. In the meantime they had put their names forward to return to Portugal, go to Brazil, to America and to Australia. They resolved that whatever came first they would accept. They began to study the atlas and read books about Australia. As it happened they were offered a place in Australia.

Magucha liked Perth immediately. She was particularly taken by all the water here: “I liked it a lot the moment I arrived in Perth. For I like water and Perth had water all around it. There were beaches. For me it was my liberation. It was here that I learned to drive a car. I became more independent with my own friends. It was completely different. Of course I already knew how to speak English because of my husband. I can’t say it was all easy. As soon as we arrived my daughter burned herself badly. I wasn’t used to kitchens in the middle of the living room. In Africa they are a separate room and one can shut the door. Babies don’t go into them. Here, Carolina managed to touch a cup of hot coffee which went all over her. She was only one year old. She had to stay in hospital … it was fairly serious.”

The Australian government provided the family with accommodation at Noalimba …They had two rooms and the bathrooms were outside. It was a migrant hostel for English speakers only. They were sent there because her husband was Scottish. The Portuguese always went to Graylands. However, she was frequently called to translate for Portuguese families. She is still friends with the first family she helped in this way.

They were allowed to stay at Noalimba for a few months, longer than usual because of Carolina’s condition. They received unemployment benefits until Andrew got a job. This was welcomed because they could now pay for their meals at Noalimba giving Magucha the time to be with Carolina in the hospital. Their other child Robin, went to school very near Noalimba. The other families helped look after Robin until Magucha came back from the hospital.

Although the family only had ninety dollars when they arrived, Andrew found work fairly soon. Their first home was a unit in Booragoon which they rented for seventy dollars a week. Magucha wanted a clean place because of Carolina’s injuries. Noalimba lent them all the furniture they needed until their furniture eventually arrived from Africa.

After learning to drive, Magucha found a period of employment at Mount Lawley College. Jocelyn Vieira, a teacher of Portuguese, employed Magucha both for her administrative skills and as an assistant teacher. Unfortunately that language program was closed and Magucha took work at the “Trots” in town, in a restaurant washing dishes. Later she was employed at Fremantle Hospital were she helped to cook food and serve it to the patients. This was good job – she worked part time, five hours a day and earned six hundred dollars a fortnight. She had holidays and the conditions were good. She stayed for ten years.

“My professional life was never the same. Life changed completely. But I have helped many people and done other things. I’ve helped to teach Portuguese, I’ve helped at the Fremantle Women’s Health Centre. Now I am a volunteer – part of the work I do is paid and the other part is not. I’ve helped many Portuguese people with the doctors and so on.”

In 1990 Magucha returned to Portugal for holidays. While there she realized how Australian she had become. While she liked Portugal she realized she did not live in the same manner. She did not have the same “saudades” (longing for Portugal) that her parents have. As she says, “Of course I like eating Portuguese food, I like being around Portuguese people, eat chourico and those things. But if I don’t have them I am not going to die. That is, I am well adapted. I don’t feel the same anguish as my parent’s do … They are going to return to Portugal, because they really feel the anguish of not being amongst Portuguese people, of not speaking Portuguese, of not having the history close by, of living the life of Lisbon which they like and want … My life s here. My children are Australian.”

                                                -------//////------

*NB: I am not a Scot! Never been there. My grandfather was a medical doctor, born in Glasgow. 

In her own words.

I have a book, “Australian Volunteers at work – 101 stories” sponsored by Volunteering Australia, published in 2000. Magucha’s story as a volunteer is one of those recorded.

This what she said and which I have transposed:- 

“It feels like home”.

I’m Portuguese, born in Mocambique. I also lived in Angola for many years, but because of all the troubles and the war, we left and ended up in Rhodesia, which today is called Zimbabwe, where I met my husband. From Zimbabwe we came to Australia as refugees in 1982, when my son was eight years old and my daughter one year old. 

I worked in the Fremantle Hospital for ten years as a pantry maid. In those days it was for the children’s future which counted rather that a career for myself. During this time I developed a kidney deficiency. My kidneys actually stopped working, and in 1993 I received a transplant. I had to give up work a year later as the work was too heavy.

But when I went home I thought ‘I don’t like this’. The children were at school, everyone had a life, and I didn’t. I found out that the Fremantle Women’s Community Health Centre needed help, so I began volunteering. I did a lot of translations including pamphlets for Portuguese ladies about breast examination and pap smears. It was all about preventative medicine. I was then asked to join the committee of the Centre and I became the secretary for four years. I help where needed – for instance fundraising and general administrative help. I love being here – it feels like home.

Because of my interest in preventative work we invited Portuguese women to come to the Centre, feel comfortable, and become part of the group. There are a large number of Portuguese women in Fremantle. The group meets every Wednesday and we have a ball! The women who come to the group hardly used to go out before. They lived a restricted life, dedicated very much to children and grandchildren. I tell them nothing is wrong with having a bit of fun. Sometimes we go out for a cup of coffee or lunch. They do things like embroidery, knitting, sewing – whatever can be sold at the annual fete, and the money raised goes to the crèche. We started meeting only one day a month, and now we meet every week.

The women give each other support and tell each other little secrets, how to do this and when to do certain things. Some of the women have health problems. Many worked very hard before they came to Australia, and are now suffering the consequences. Apart from the fun side, there is still serious stuff going on – talk of going to doctors, about prevention of disease, pap smears, breast examination and diet.

It is six years since I had my kidney transplant, but now I’m back to square one because I’m rejecting the transplant. So I’m on a waiting list for another kidney. I could be three years. Apart from that, I feel fine!

                                                            ---///---

NB. Magucha was, with love and great generosity, given a kidney by her younger brother, Joao-Miguel, who came out to Perth for the transplant operation. That, as far as I can now remember, was in 2003. Anyway it lasted right through until she died in January 2016. 

The Sorcerer's Apprentice

This is a very old tale about the unforeseen consequences of hubris, believing that partial knowledge is adequate and general ineptitude is of no importance. 

Possibly the best known version of this tale is the poem by Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, written in 1797. This tells of a sorcerer’s apprentice who is meant to carry out various tasks while the sorcerer himself is temporarily absent. 

While cleaning, the apprentice becomes tired of carrying pails of water. So he uses his (limited) powers to enchant a broom to carry out the work. 

The trouble begins when the apprentice doesn’t know how to stop the broom. He tries to stop the broom by splitting it in half but the two halves now increase the speed of their activities by carrying in so much water that the room is flooded.

Fortunately the sorcerer returns and breaks the spell. 

The moral of the story is that only masters, with the requisite knowledge, should invoke powerful forces.

Goethe’s version is a possible rewrite of a very similar ancient Roman story narrated by Lucian (about 140 CE) that follows a similar theme which emphasises the power of magic or technology turning against the insufficiently wise or knowledgeable person invoking it.  

Now, in today’s world with technology of previously unimaginable power, Man’s moral and ethical capabilities to harness it for the good of the World in general is found to be wanting or so I believe. 

These old tales are worth recalling. I think particularly of the “World’s” response to the inescapable effects of changes to the climate brought about largely through the unfettered use of fossil fuels. 

The use of these fuels are supported because they are “good for the economy”, therefore are to be considered as “good” for all. Especially for the wealthy – the shareholders that invest in the companies that produce or use these fuels. 

It apparently matters not that “science” informs us all that the environment, the “world” that supports all we know, is being damaged at an ever increasing rate.

Ignore the science - it’s all about “money” you see!  

The trouble is that if the environment is damaged further, it will become increasingly difficult for life in general to exist. Only then will it become apparent that without people (and all that supports life on Earth), there will be no money, no companies to invest in and no shareholders demanding ever increasing dividends from evermore profitable companies. 

To me, it is blindingly obvious that PEOPLE and the ENVIRONMENT that supports all Life forms should be the focus of all – not money, however useful this may be in certain circumstances. 

Now, today, we have the COVID19 virus that is roiling the “economies” of all countries and killing thousand of people. The astonishing difference in the response is that “science” is apparently now paramount in informing us how to contend with this devastating outbreak.    

The blatant hypocrisy evident in this about face is extraordinary.

The “economy” is going to suffer you see! Simple.