Robots revisited - a "Workless" future

Now that driverless cars are a reality and the US Air Force has pilotless planes – not just drones or UAVs – but unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), I’m sure the armament industries around the world will soon produce driverless tanks, driverless self-propelled automatic radar controlled self loading artillery, armed robots to replace foot soldiers and who knows what else is on the artificial intelligence (AI) robotic horizon.

Anything to save the cost of people – soldiers needing to be trained, uniformed, fed, housed, then possibly injured or killed.

But then we need to ask the question – who will these robots be trying to kill?

This robot and AI problem applies also, of course, to commerce and industry. Many of the jobs that American politicians want to bring back to America will never eventuate. The days of the old unskilled, labour intensive jobs are numbered. We are told that within 10-20 years many, if not most, of the unskilled laboring will be gone. As an example there is a giant 3D printer in China that can “print out ten houses on a block of land in 24 hours - the houses were built in Shanghai by WinSun Decoration Design Engineering. Each house was 10 metres wide (about 33ft) and 6.6 metres high (about 20ft) using a mix of cement and construction waste, with walls being constructed layer by layer, like making a cake.” This construction can be seen at work on a YouTube video and refers only to the walls. The roof is a separate construction by men. Also on YouTube is a video of the Tiger Stone Paving Robot that lays a road at four times the speed of a team of human workers. (These quotes are from book called ‘Why the Future is Workless’ by Tim Dunlop). I’ve seen the videos – amazing!

So the world is changing – what was will no longer be – the status quo has evaporated.

So what is the solution? Certainly some “service” jobs will still need individuals – cleaning, cooking, nursing, teaching, child-care and such like – but many others will be automated or performed by robots.

Just consider the impact on the poor and middle class in the USA. Even now, with the globalization of work, there are more workers than there is work for them to do (i.e. the “rust belt” in the USA). In a report by Carl B Frey and Michael A Osborne from the Oxford Martin School at Oxford University (full report is available free on line - Google it) they examined 702 jobs in the USA and determined that 47% are vulnerable to automation within the next twenty years. The main finding is that “algorithms for big data are now rapidly entering domains reliant upon pattern recognition and can readily substitute for labour in a wide range of non-routine cognitive tasks.”

A similar conclusion was arrived at by MIT scholars, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee in their research paper, “The Second Machine Age”.

Basically these reports say that the only “safe” jobs will be those that require social intelligence – the ability to interact with other humans in an intuitive way; those that require creativity – a deep understanding of what humans want from their creative tasks to be effective; and, surprisingly, the ability to manipulate objects in unstructured and cluttered environments (i.e cleaning jobs).

Many, if not most politicians, and the “ruling class”, may be horrified at the obvious solution – give everyone, and I mean everyone – employed or unemployed – give everyone a “Universal Basic Income”. This universal basic income is already in place in the city of Utrecht (Netherlands) and is being actively considered by the Governments of Finland, Switzerland, India, Canada, New Zealand and, as mentioned, the Netherlands.

A world that no longer revolves around full time paid employment, one underpinned by a universal basic income, opens up the possibility of a life of, for instance, more civic, social and community engagements – using our skills for personal satisfaction and free exchange rather than channeling them into the need to earn income or profit.

This is no joke! If a large percentage of people in the USA – or any country for that matter – are unemployed and are unable to see any possibility of future employment, what are they supposed to do?

Anger and frustration will consume many people, especially when they are made aware that currently (2016) the inequality gap between the wages of the typical worker and that of the typical CEO is 200 times. That is right  - the typical CEO in the USA earns 200 times the wage of the average worker!! In Japan it is 16 times.

To me it is a no brainer that people – millions of people – will swamp their governments for assistance. If all Governments adapt and are proactive they will plan for this eventuality and the only option is to pay everyone, repeat, everyone a “Universal Basic Income”.

Many right wing politicians and those in the “ruling class” will fight such a policy but they will be outnumbered by the millions of unemployed, destitute, poor, frustrated and angry people clamoring at their doors, clamoring for assistance.  

This is the future  - and it’s coming soon – get used to it.

The Economy and Robotics

Robots seem to be used in increasing numbers in all walks of life, particularly in industry. Now just imagine the following (not so hypothetical scenario) wherein the CEO of an industrial company making, shall we say motor-cycles, decides, because of stakeholder pressure, that the best option to maximise profits would be to invest in a fully automated process – using robotics.

The obvious advantages of using robots are that they work without a break all day if required (apart from any general maintenance), don’t get sick, don’t agitate for higher (or any) pay, always do what they are told, don’t get married, have babies or go on leave and don’t get bored with repetitive actions. In fact they are the ideal “employees”.

This means higher profits and greater returns for investors – even after taking into account, possibly, any increased debt, depreciation and maintenance costs.

Following this through to a logical conclusion the company – with robotics - would now operate at a higher level of productivity, leading to greater profits. The stakeholders would be happy with increased dividends and the motor-cycles (or any other items) produced are likely to be more reliable because the “human factor” has been eliminated leading to more accurate manufacturing and assembly.

This move to robotics would be noted by competitors who would in all probability follow suit. This may possibly lead to more companies, and not just in the motor-cycle industry, converting their operations to embrace robotics and so increasing their profits and productivity thereby.

Another logical outcome from this move to robotics is that the general workforce is reduced.  

The question now needs to be asked, “If the workforce, generally, is reduced because of robotics, who would be able to earn enough to afford the motor cycles (or any other items) produced in this hypothetical factory?”

This is a modern phenomenon which applies across all sectors of the economy.

Interesting.

Now it could be virtual war!

There have been reports in the media about the possibility of the Americans developing autonomous robotic weapons to perform more and more front-line activities. These are robots that (they hope) will think logically and perform many of the tasks currently performed by human soldiers.

The whole reason behind this is to save soldier’s lives. Very laudable and should be encouraged. But I believe this misses the mark by a wide margin.

It misses the mark because it ignores the fact that no one ever really “wins” a war – the long term effects of wars are unforeseeable and normally very unpleasant. The “victors” would have incurred an enormous financial and human cost – to be felt for generations. And the cost to the “losers” is almost incalculable; tremendous damage to infrastructure and housing and huge loss of life in all sectors. So why fight?

I suggest that the robot “phase” be skipped over entirely and that those who wish to satisfy their urge to fight, destroy and to kill engage in a “virtual” war. Computer technology has advanced to the stage where such “wars” could be very realistic – a form of advanced computer game. To develop this concept a stage further robots should be devised that would  fight these “virtual” wars on our behalf!!

Think of all the money that would be saved! Think of all the lives that would be saved! Think of all the productive elements that could be directed into improving the underdeveloped regions of the world! Think of all the money, previously spent on military research, that could be used to improve the general human condition – health care (cancer for one thing), research into mental well-being (depression, schizophrenia and such like) that debilitates millions of people – and then there is food production.

It is completely illogical and defies rational thought that we (that is human beings) should spent vast amounts of money developing new and better ways to kill our fellow beings while millions are starving to death.

Why not fight “virtual” wars and spend the money saved to help our fellow beings!

Think about it.