The Fate of Empires

I was reminded of an old magazine article after reading what others have written on this topic – in this case the current political troubles besetting the USA (see 'Rolling Stone' – August 6, 2020)  

 

I kept a copy of (the now defunct) Blackwood’s Magazine, dated December 1976, because of a very interesting essay entitled “The Fate of Empires” by Lieutenant-General, Sir John Bagot Glubb, (1897 – 1986) also possibly better known as Glubb Pasha. Glubb was a highly decorated, distinguished British military man who had a long association with the Arab world.

 

This essay traces various, mainly European and Middle Eastern empires, from ancient Assyria (858-612 BCE) through to the British Empire which he dates 1700 -1950. Glubb admits to knowing nothing about the South American, Chinese, Indian or other Asian empires, so they are not mentioned in this essay. 

 

The American “empire” he barely mentions but he does suggest that this was an “internal empire” – taking over the North American continent, with all its riches, from the indigenous peoples, began after the war in 1812, with the Westward Expansion. It really started in earnest, however, in 1845 with the idea of a Manifest Destiny - “from Sea to Shining Sea” – so there was no real need to look elsewhere. 

 

With slight variations the general “age” of these empires was about 250 years and they all follow a similar pattern. While I might not agree with all his ideas – he was writing from a very British viewpoint some 45 years ago – generally what he wrote then is an accurate time line relating to the various stages of an empires rise and fall.

 

Ten generations – 250 years - is a pretty standard life-time of an empire. In summary, Glubb suggests the following as an approximate flow of events relating to any empire’s eventual fate:- 

 

1.     The Age of Pioneers (the outburst).

2.     The Age of Conquests.

3.     The Age of Commerce.

4.     The Age of Affluence.

5.     The Age of Intellect.

6.     The Age of Decadence.

This age, Decadence, in Glubb’s opinion, is marked by:

a.     Defensiveness

b.     Pessimism

c.     Materialism

d.     Frivolity

e.     An influx of foreigners

f.      The Welfare State

g.     A weakening of religion

h.     Too long a period of wealth and power

i.      Selfishness and civil disobedience 

j.      Love of money

k.     Loss of a sense of duty.

 

Generally though Empires fall largely as a result of external causes.

 

My point in quoting from this essay is to highlight the fact that, quite possibly, America (the USA) is now quite far down the path of decadence (refer Rolling Stone article). Also depending on when one considers America to have begun it’s empire 1812 or 1848 – it is quite far either into or approaching its second century. 

 

So what is next? Which country will rise to form the next Empire? I am no soothsayer so I will not make any predictions on the future of the USA or any other country. 

 

I’m not game enough!!

America

Below is copied, from a book of Max Ehrmann’s poems, a piece called “America” that I believe should resonate with the many wonderful people in the USA. But remember that this was written early last century – I believe sometime before 1910. But what has changed?

America

Lincoln, rise up from out thy tomb today,

Thou lover of the lives of common men,

America has work for thee again.

Here women want in sight of wealth’s display,

Man grinds his brother down and holds sway

As in the times of bloody lash and den,

Save now the flesh is white, not black as then.

In toiling holes young girls grow old, decay.

Though thou art dead, could but thy soul return

In one who loved his fellow-men as thou;

Instead of greed that we might justice learn,

Love character in place of gold as now,

Write far across our native land’s sweet soil,

“Here none shall live upon another’s toil!”

If antidepressants drugs are so effective ….

If antidepressant and antipsychotic drugs are so effective why are they being prescribed in ever increasing numbers? Something is out of kilter here.

The percentage of the population with some sort of mental issue remains fairly constant at about one person in five (in developed countries that is). But the number of prescriptions issued for antidepressants and antipsychotics are increasing year by year – according to the New York Times “In 2011 alone, they and other antipsychotic drugs were prescribed to 3.1 million Americans at a cost of $18.2 billion, a 13 percent increase over the previous year, according to the market research firm IMS Health.” Again, according to the American Psychological Association (APA) “The use of psychotropic drugs by adult Americans increased 22 percent from 2001 to 2010, with one in five adults now taking at least one psychotropic medication, according to industry data.”  

In Australia the rate of increase in such medications is similar with the rate per 1,000 population of community-dispensed prescriptions for mental health-related medications increased from 2005–06 to 2009–10 by an annual average increase of 2% - roughly 10% in five years or (extrapolating the figures) roughly 20% in ten years (Australian Medicare records).

In the same ten year period the population of the US increased by (again roughly) 10% and that of Australia by roughly 12%.

In summary then – populations of both the USA and Australia have increased by about 10%-12% in the years2001 – 2010 but mental health medication has increased at roughly 20% - 22% in the period.

It may not be a widely known fact but documented research constantly shows that antidepressants and antipsychotics are only marginally more effective than a placebo (a sugar pill). Yet the pharmaceutical companies – they are huge money making organizations – keep telling us otherwise.

My point is IF (and it is a big if) these drugs - which have been around in one form or another for about fifty years - are so effective, and if the percentage of people with mental health issues has remained constant at about  1 in 5 for years, why then is the use of these drugs increasing?

As I said at the beginning of this post – something is out of kilter!!