I was reminded of an old magazine article after reading what others have written on this topic – in this case the current political troubles besetting the USA (see 'Rolling Stone' – August 6, 2020)
I kept a copy of (the now defunct) Blackwood’s Magazine, dated December 1976, because of a very interesting essay entitled “The Fate of Empires” by Lieutenant-General, Sir John Bagot Glubb, (1897 – 1986) also possibly better known as Glubb Pasha. Glubb was a highly decorated, distinguished British military man who had a long association with the Arab world.
This essay traces various, mainly European and Middle Eastern empires, from ancient Assyria (858-612 BCE) through to the British Empire which he dates 1700 -1950. Glubb admits to knowing nothing about the South American, Chinese, Indian or other Asian empires, so they are not mentioned in this essay.
The American “empire” he barely mentions but he does suggest that this was an “internal empire” – taking over the North American continent, with all its riches, from the indigenous peoples, began after the war in 1812, with the Westward Expansion. It really started in earnest, however, in 1845 with the idea of a Manifest Destiny - “from Sea to Shining Sea” – so there was no real need to look elsewhere.
With slight variations the general “age” of these empires was about 250 years and they all follow a similar pattern. While I might not agree with all his ideas – he was writing from a very British viewpoint some 45 years ago – generally what he wrote then is an accurate time line relating to the various stages of an empires rise and fall.
Ten generations – 250 years - is a pretty standard life-time of an empire. In summary, Glubb suggests the following as an approximate flow of events relating to any empire’s eventual fate:-
1. The Age of Pioneers (the outburst).
2. The Age of Conquests.
3. The Age of Commerce.
4. The Age of Affluence.
5. The Age of Intellect.
6. The Age of Decadence.
This age, Decadence, in Glubb’s opinion, is marked by:
a. Defensiveness
b. Pessimism
c. Materialism
d. Frivolity
e. An influx of foreigners
f. The Welfare State
g. A weakening of religion
h. Too long a period of wealth and power
i. Selfishness and civil disobedience
j. Love of money
k. Loss of a sense of duty.
Generally though Empires fall largely as a result of external causes.
My point in quoting from this essay is to highlight the fact that, quite possibly, America (the USA) is now quite far down the path of decadence (refer Rolling Stone article). Also depending on when one considers America to have begun it’s empire 1812 or 1848 – it is quite far either into or approaching its second century.
So what is next? Which country will rise to form the next Empire? I am no soothsayer so I will not make any predictions on the future of the USA or any other country.
I’m not game enough!!
