I thought this might be interesting

Updated January 29, 2021

I thought this might be an interesting comparison with the CURRENT Covid19 pandemic.

The war deaths figures below are taken from Wikipedia and the CURRENT Covid-19 figures are taken from the John Hopkins University statistics (as at January 29, 2021).

So far in 120 YEARS of warfare the US has suffered 627, 549 deaths.

So far, in just 13 MONTHS since January 1, 2020, the US has suffered 433, 213 Covid-19 deaths.

 Wars – since 1900 - ranked by total number of U.S. military deaths.

Rank	War	Years	Deaths
1	World War II	1941–45	405,399
2	World War I	1917–18	116,516
3	Vietnam War	1961–75	58,209
4	Korean War	1950–53	36,516
5	Iraq War	2003–11	4,497
6	Philippine–American War	1899–1902	4,196
7	War in Afghanistan	2001–present	2,216
	TOTAL DEATHS		627,549

 

A good human story

I’m not sure who wrote this, when it was written, even whether it is true or not. However I think in these traumatic COVID19 pandemic times it is worth remembering that we are all human; that we all suffer; that, at the end of our life we will all die. 

But above all we need to remember that we need to be kind. 

  

…. ////….

A nurse took the tired, anxious serviceman to the bedside. "Your
son is here," she said to the old man. She had to repeat the words
several times before the patient's eyes opened.

Heavily sedated because of the pain of his heart attack, he
dimly saw the young uniformed Marine standing outside the
oxygen tent. He reached out his hand. The Marine wrapped his toughened
fingers around the old man's limp ones, squeezing a message of love and
encouragement.

The nurse brought a chair so that the Marine could sit beside
the bed.  All through the night the young Marine sat there in the
poorly lighted ward, holding the old man's hand and offering him words
of love and strength. Occasionally, the nurse suggested that the Marine
move away and rest awhile. He refused. Whenever the nurse came into the ward, the

Marine was oblivious of her and of the night noises of the hospital,
the clanking of the oxygen tank, the laughter of the night staff members
exchanging greetings, the cries and moans of the other patients.

Now and then she heard him say a few gentle words. The
dying man said nothing, only held tightly to his son all through
the night. Along towards dawn, the old man died. The Marine released
the now lifeless hand he had been holding and went to tell the nurse.
While she did what she had to do, he waited.
Finally, she returned. She started to offer words of sympathy,
but the Marine interrupted her.

"Who was that man?" he asked.
The nurse was startled, "He was your father," she answered.
"No, he wasn't," the Marine replied. "I never saw him before
in my life."
"Then why didn't you say something when I took you to him?"
"I knew right away there had been a mistake, but I also knew
he needed his son, and his son just wasn't here. When I realized
that he was too sick to tell whether or not I was his son, knowing how
much he needed me, I stayed."

The next time someone needs you ... just be there. Stay.

We are not human beings going through a temporary spiritual
experience.

We are spiritual beings going through a temporary human
experience.

Probable Future

COVID19, Robots, Artificial Intelligence and the future of Australian Society. 

In relation to recent comments about the Australian “economy” and the budget, it is necessary to acknowledge that the “economy” is actually the people, the citizens, of Australia. Without people, there would be no “economy” and therefor by default no need for a budget (in surplus or otherwise). Pursuing the logic of this it would seem very obvious that people are the important factor – look after people, first and foremost.

Now, I understand that many are considering the benefits of either a Universal Basic Income (UBI) or Negative Income Tax (NIT) to counteract the economic effects of the current COVID19 pandemic. There is also the effect of Robotics and the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to consider, that will also have long term effects on the economy and society (people) here in Australia.

It would appear to be indisputable that the robotic and AI future has implications not only for commerce and industry but more especially for society in general. Many of the jobs that have been lost in Australia to low wage countries will never return to these shores. The days of the old unskilled, labour intensive jobs are numbered; the mining industry has quickly adopted driverless ore trucks; there are advanced plans to use more driverless trains to transport iron ore; there are farmers using drones and driverless machinery and there are other uses of these technologies, now a reality, that were unimaginable just five years ago. 

Now COVID19 just adds to the confusion roiling world trade and the well-being of hundreds of millions of people.

The world is changing – what was, will no longer be – the status quo has evaporated. The vista of unending employment growth is no longer a likely, or even probable, future. 

While it must be acknowledged that not all jobs will be automated or impacted by AI – for those that are, restructuring workplaces, educating and retraining employers and the remaining employees to adapt to and manage the new technologies will be a necessary long term requirement. 

This is no light matter and needs to be seriously considered. If a large percentage of people in Australia  – or any country for that matter – become unemployed and are unable to see any possibility of future long-term employment, what are they supposed to do? 

The consensus is narrowing down to introducing either a UBI or an NIT.

Many, if not most politicians, and those in business may be horrified at such solutions – giving everyone, and I mean everyone – employed or unemployed – giving everyone a UBI or access to NIT. The universal basic income is already in place, as in Alaska a scheme similar to an NIT has been in place for years. 

In an economic environment that is unable to provide long term paid employment for all, there will be, as an urgent necessity - a requirement - for a population that is underpinned by a universal basic income or a negative income tax. This would open up the possibility of a life without poverty and reduce the vexed problems arising from income inequality.

The gross inequality of incomes world-wide resulting from current globalization impacts unfavourably on the health and well-being of millions of individuals (including here in Australia). Unless this is alleviated anger and frustration will consume many people and overwhelm governments. I am sure you will be aware that currently (2018 figures) the gap between the wages of the typical worker and that of the typical Australian CEO is at least 45 times the average fulltime wage. The disparity is much wider overseas. In the USA, where minimum wages are less than half of Australia’s and CEO salaries above $20 million are common, the difference is more than 200 times. This disparity is economically and socially unsustainable. 

Without some basic assistance it is suggested that people – millions of people – will swamp the Australian Government with pleas for help. If the Government adapts and is proactive it will plan for this eventuality and the only safe option is to pay everyone, repeat everyone – employed or not - pay them a Universal Basic Income or provide the benefits from a Negative Income Tax. There are no other viable options, particularly with an aging population. 

Many will object to such policies claiming they are unsustainable. They will, however, be outnumbered by the millions of educated, unemployed, destitute, poor, frustrated and angry people clamoring at their doors, clamoring for assistance. Clamoring to have enough money to just exist. Again the question needs to be asked, what else are they supposed to do? 

{Note: Negative Income Tax - For people who do not earn enough to pay tax (or earn below the minimum wage or some other agreed amount) their income would be supplemented to arrive at the agreed amount or the minimum wage. Everyone, working or not, would be obliged to lodge a tax return and any supplement would be “refunded” via the ATO, similar to the process for a normal tax refund.}

Both the UBI and NIT would do away with the plethora of welfare payments currently in place; both would be funded, it is suggested, by adjustments to current programs and/or adjustments to marginal tax rates, investment allowances (negative gearing and capital gains?) and corporate taxation, or possibly a very small (.001 percent) financial transaction levy (colloquially known as a “Tobin” Tax).

Any additional funding for the UBI or NIT involves a simple principle: go where the money is. “Since money has been increasing going to the top, that’s where the additional revenue will have to come from. It is really that simple.” (Quote is from The Price of Inequality (2013) by Joseph E. Stiglitz – former World Bank chief economist and 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics).

Political will aside – what is it that the future unemployed are supposed to live on?

I suggest this is the future - and it’s coming soon – get used to it. Plan for it. Now.  

The Sorcerer's Apprentice

This is a very old tale about the unforeseen consequences of hubris, believing that partial knowledge is adequate and general ineptitude is of no importance. 

Possibly the best known version of this tale is the poem by Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, written in 1797. This tells of a sorcerer’s apprentice who is meant to carry out various tasks while the sorcerer himself is temporarily absent. 

While cleaning, the apprentice becomes tired of carrying pails of water. So he uses his (limited) powers to enchant a broom to carry out the work. 

The trouble begins when the apprentice doesn’t know how to stop the broom. He tries to stop the broom by splitting it in half but the two halves now increase the speed of their activities by carrying in so much water that the room is flooded.

Fortunately the sorcerer returns and breaks the spell. 

The moral of the story is that only masters, with the requisite knowledge, should invoke powerful forces.

Goethe’s version is a possible rewrite of a very similar ancient Roman story narrated by Lucian (about 140 CE) that follows a similar theme which emphasises the power of magic or technology turning against the insufficiently wise or knowledgeable person invoking it.  

Now, in today’s world with technology of previously unimaginable power, Man’s moral and ethical capabilities to harness it for the good of the World in general is found to be wanting or so I believe. 

These old tales are worth recalling. I think particularly of the “World’s” response to the inescapable effects of changes to the climate brought about largely through the unfettered use of fossil fuels. 

The use of these fuels are supported because they are “good for the economy”, therefore are to be considered as “good” for all. Especially for the wealthy – the shareholders that invest in the companies that produce or use these fuels. 

It apparently matters not that “science” informs us all that the environment, the “world” that supports all we know, is being damaged at an ever increasing rate.

Ignore the science - it’s all about “money” you see!  

The trouble is that if the environment is damaged further, it will become increasingly difficult for life in general to exist. Only then will it become apparent that without people (and all that supports life on Earth), there will be no money, no companies to invest in and no shareholders demanding ever increasing dividends from evermore profitable companies. 

To me, it is blindingly obvious that PEOPLE and the ENVIRONMENT that supports all Life forms should be the focus of all – not money, however useful this may be in certain circumstances. 

Now, today, we have the COVID19 virus that is roiling the “economies” of all countries and killing thousand of people. The astonishing difference in the response is that “science” is apparently now paramount in informing us how to contend with this devastating outbreak.    

The blatant hypocrisy evident in this about face is extraordinary.

The “economy” is going to suffer you see! Simple.