Probable Future

COVID19, Robots, Artificial Intelligence and the future of Australian Society. 

In relation to recent comments about the Australian “economy” and the budget, it is necessary to acknowledge that the “economy” is actually the people, the citizens, of Australia. Without people, there would be no “economy” and therefor by default no need for a budget (in surplus or otherwise). Pursuing the logic of this it would seem very obvious that people are the important factor – look after people, first and foremost.

Now, I understand that many are considering the benefits of either a Universal Basic Income (UBI) or Negative Income Tax (NIT) to counteract the economic effects of the current COVID19 pandemic. There is also the effect of Robotics and the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to consider, that will also have long term effects on the economy and society (people) here in Australia.

It would appear to be indisputable that the robotic and AI future has implications not only for commerce and industry but more especially for society in general. Many of the jobs that have been lost in Australia to low wage countries will never return to these shores. The days of the old unskilled, labour intensive jobs are numbered; the mining industry has quickly adopted driverless ore trucks; there are advanced plans to use more driverless trains to transport iron ore; there are farmers using drones and driverless machinery and there are other uses of these technologies, now a reality, that were unimaginable just five years ago. 

Now COVID19 just adds to the confusion roiling world trade and the well-being of hundreds of millions of people.

The world is changing – what was, will no longer be – the status quo has evaporated. The vista of unending employment growth is no longer a likely, or even probable, future. 

While it must be acknowledged that not all jobs will be automated or impacted by AI – for those that are, restructuring workplaces, educating and retraining employers and the remaining employees to adapt to and manage the new technologies will be a necessary long term requirement. 

This is no light matter and needs to be seriously considered. If a large percentage of people in Australia  – or any country for that matter – become unemployed and are unable to see any possibility of future long-term employment, what are they supposed to do? 

The consensus is narrowing down to introducing either a UBI or an NIT.

Many, if not most politicians, and those in business may be horrified at such solutions – giving everyone, and I mean everyone – employed or unemployed – giving everyone a UBI or access to NIT. The universal basic income is already in place, as in Alaska a scheme similar to an NIT has been in place for years. 

In an economic environment that is unable to provide long term paid employment for all, there will be, as an urgent necessity - a requirement - for a population that is underpinned by a universal basic income or a negative income tax. This would open up the possibility of a life without poverty and reduce the vexed problems arising from income inequality.

The gross inequality of incomes world-wide resulting from current globalization impacts unfavourably on the health and well-being of millions of individuals (including here in Australia). Unless this is alleviated anger and frustration will consume many people and overwhelm governments. I am sure you will be aware that currently (2018 figures) the gap between the wages of the typical worker and that of the typical Australian CEO is at least 45 times the average fulltime wage. The disparity is much wider overseas. In the USA, where minimum wages are less than half of Australia’s and CEO salaries above $20 million are common, the difference is more than 200 times. This disparity is economically and socially unsustainable. 

Without some basic assistance it is suggested that people – millions of people – will swamp the Australian Government with pleas for help. If the Government adapts and is proactive it will plan for this eventuality and the only safe option is to pay everyone, repeat everyone – employed or not - pay them a Universal Basic Income or provide the benefits from a Negative Income Tax. There are no other viable options, particularly with an aging population. 

Many will object to such policies claiming they are unsustainable. They will, however, be outnumbered by the millions of educated, unemployed, destitute, poor, frustrated and angry people clamoring at their doors, clamoring for assistance. Clamoring to have enough money to just exist. Again the question needs to be asked, what else are they supposed to do? 

{Note: Negative Income Tax - For people who do not earn enough to pay tax (or earn below the minimum wage or some other agreed amount) their income would be supplemented to arrive at the agreed amount or the minimum wage. Everyone, working or not, would be obliged to lodge a tax return and any supplement would be “refunded” via the ATO, similar to the process for a normal tax refund.}

Both the UBI and NIT would do away with the plethora of welfare payments currently in place; both would be funded, it is suggested, by adjustments to current programs and/or adjustments to marginal tax rates, investment allowances (negative gearing and capital gains?) and corporate taxation, or possibly a very small (.001 percent) financial transaction levy (colloquially known as a “Tobin” Tax).

Any additional funding for the UBI or NIT involves a simple principle: go where the money is. “Since money has been increasing going to the top, that’s where the additional revenue will have to come from. It is really that simple.” (Quote is from The Price of Inequality (2013) by Joseph E. Stiglitz – former World Bank chief economist and 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics).

Political will aside – what is it that the future unemployed are supposed to live on?

I suggest this is the future - and it’s coming soon – get used to it. Plan for it. Now.  

American Government (in)justice

I have written about this before – many times – but I repeat again that injustice is the root of most of the problems in the world today. When governments, of whatever persuasion, start hiding their activities from their own people then you know that there is a problem and this arouses my sense of outrage. Injustice and unethical behaviour are inexcusable.   

While (generally) I hold America and Americans in high regard I am particularly targeting their Government’s “holier than thou” attitude and a “do as I say, not as I do” approach to some policies which I find offensive and unworthy of the American people.

I know that politics is a dirty game but denying illegal or unethical activities and behaviour is taking things too far. In this regard the American Government has lost its “moral high ground” with the treatment of those in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre (Gitmo), by the vitriol directed at Julian Assange (Wikileaks founder), Bradley Manning (American soldier who is alleged to have supplied Wikileaks with information) and whistle blowers generally. Other countries (including Australia) are guilty of similar offences.

It is necessary to examine the issues impartially because this is very important.

If a government, American, or that of any country conceals information from its population how can voters make an informed judgement on the effectiveness or otherwise of that government? Especially, as mentioned above, if the information so concealed may be of such an unethical or illegal nature that any disclosure would diminish the government’s standing in the eyes of the voting public and cause the officials concerned much discomfort!

This is where whistle blowers such as Bradley Manning and Julian Assange are, as far as I am concerned, performing a valuable service – not just to the American public but for mankind generally. It is necessary, for any individual’s or government’s well-being to be shown up for what they are, prone to unethical activities, lying and plain criminal behaviour (unfortunately all of us are at times guilty of these).  Unless governments and individuals acknowledge their weaknesses how can they correct their errors and aspire to reach their full potential? How else can the voting public be given enough information to know if they want or need a change of government other than by the information provided by whistle-blowers? Without this information the voting public is in danger of being manipulated, against their wishes.

Whistle blowers need to be commended for their actions, not condemned.

The American Government, in particular, has forgotten or chosen to ignore the fact that their Declaration of Independence includes the basic tenet that people have certain rights, and when a government violates these rights, the people have the right to "alter or abolish" that government ...!  

Also remember that America is a signatory to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (as is Australia). This states in the preamble that, “All human beings are born with equal and inalienable rights and fundamental freedoms.”  It goes on to declare in:

Articles 6:

Everyone has the right to recognition everywhere as a person before the law.

Article10:

Everyone is entitled in full equality to a fair and public hearing by an independent and impartial tribunal, in the determination of his rights and obligations and of any criminal charge against him.

 Article 19:

Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.

It would appear that the Americans by holding inmates indefinitely in Guantanamo Bay detention centre and by their treatment of whistle-blowers generally, are violating many of the most fundamental human rights and I ask the question “Why?” I also ask the Australian Government a similar question – why hold individuals (“illegal boat people”) in indefinite detention without judicial review or recourse to the courts? Such actions promote injustice and are plain wrong and will be subject to unintended consequences.

I strongly suspect that this abrogation of  basic Human Rights stems from the fact that officials are discomforted by the disclosures which, in turn, generates a desire to punish whistle blowers for showing to the world that Americans (or Australians) are not as ethical, as just or morally correct as they would like to be known for.  Their declared abhorrence, almost a hatred of whistle blowers is testament to this.

Those who fail or refuse to do good in the face of evil are sowing some dangerous seeds. It worth recalling the famous quote by the British statesman and philosopher Edmund Burke (1729-1797):

“All that's necessary for the forces of evil to win in the world is for enough good men to do nothing.”