The Fate of Empires

I was reminded of an old magazine article after reading what others have written on this topic – in this case the current political troubles besetting the USA (see 'Rolling Stone' – August 6, 2020)  

 

I kept a copy of (the now defunct) Blackwood’s Magazine, dated December 1976, because of a very interesting essay entitled “The Fate of Empires” by Lieutenant-General, Sir John Bagot Glubb, (1897 – 1986) also possibly better known as Glubb Pasha. Glubb was a highly decorated, distinguished British military man who had a long association with the Arab world.

 

This essay traces various, mainly European and Middle Eastern empires, from ancient Assyria (858-612 BCE) through to the British Empire which he dates 1700 -1950. Glubb admits to knowing nothing about the South American, Chinese, Indian or other Asian empires, so they are not mentioned in this essay. 

 

The American “empire” he barely mentions but he does suggest that this was an “internal empire” – taking over the North American continent, with all its riches, from the indigenous peoples, began after the war in 1812, with the Westward Expansion. It really started in earnest, however, in 1845 with the idea of a Manifest Destiny - “from Sea to Shining Sea” – so there was no real need to look elsewhere. 

 

With slight variations the general “age” of these empires was about 250 years and they all follow a similar pattern. While I might not agree with all his ideas – he was writing from a very British viewpoint some 45 years ago – generally what he wrote then is an accurate time line relating to the various stages of an empires rise and fall.

 

Ten generations – 250 years - is a pretty standard life-time of an empire. In summary, Glubb suggests the following as an approximate flow of events relating to any empire’s eventual fate:- 

 

1.     The Age of Pioneers (the outburst).

2.     The Age of Conquests.

3.     The Age of Commerce.

4.     The Age of Affluence.

5.     The Age of Intellect.

6.     The Age of Decadence.

This age, Decadence, in Glubb’s opinion, is marked by:

a.     Defensiveness

b.     Pessimism

c.     Materialism

d.     Frivolity

e.     An influx of foreigners

f.      The Welfare State

g.     A weakening of religion

h.     Too long a period of wealth and power

i.      Selfishness and civil disobedience 

j.      Love of money

k.     Loss of a sense of duty.

 

Generally though Empires fall largely as a result of external causes.

 

My point in quoting from this essay is to highlight the fact that, quite possibly, America (the USA) is now quite far down the path of decadence (refer Rolling Stone article). Also depending on when one considers America to have begun it’s empire 1812 or 1848 – it is quite far either into or approaching its second century. 

 

So what is next? Which country will rise to form the next Empire? I am no soothsayer so I will not make any predictions on the future of the USA or any other country. 

 

I’m not game enough!!

I thought this might be interesting

Updated January 29, 2021

I thought this might be an interesting comparison with the CURRENT Covid19 pandemic.

The war deaths figures below are taken from Wikipedia and the CURRENT Covid-19 figures are taken from the John Hopkins University statistics (as at January 29, 2021).

So far in 120 YEARS of warfare the US has suffered 627, 549 deaths.

So far, in just 13 MONTHS since January 1, 2020, the US has suffered 433, 213 Covid-19 deaths.

 Wars – since 1900 - ranked by total number of U.S. military deaths.

Rank	War	Years	Deaths
1	World War II	1941–45	405,399
2	World War I	1917–18	116,516
3	Vietnam War	1961–75	58,209
4	Korean War	1950–53	36,516
5	Iraq War	2003–11	4,497
6	Philippine–American War	1899–1902	4,196
7	War in Afghanistan	2001–present	2,216
	TOTAL DEATHS		627,549

 

Wisdom in a time of crisis.

When some leaders start to display dictatorial tendencies, human nature being what it is, it is worthwhile looking at what history has to say. Always it is best to take the long view – a timely distance allows one to make sense of what happened and why. 

Even so, relating to current world leadership, inferences may be drawn from the sayings of some historical figures:-

“Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad.”

No one is quite sure who originated this saying - attributed, possibly to Euripides, but it doesn’t really matter. It is the intent. I believe is quite appropriate today.  By “mad” I don’t think that insanity is implied, rather I believe that what is alluded to is a loss of  “measure” – a term that is no longer fashionable - meaning a loss of proportion; giving to much emphasis on personal gain and aggrandizement and thus ignoring the plight of others.     

Then there is this famous injunction leveled at the English “Rump Parliament” on 20^th April 1653, when Oliver Cromwell harangued the members of that parliament:-

“You have sat here too long for any good that you have been doing lately. Depart I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!” 

Also quite apposite today I believe is this saying, attributed to Edmund Burke, the Eighteenth Century Irish author and Statesman:-

 “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men should do nothing.”

It saddens me to think that some of todays world leaders have so lost their moral and ethical compasses that they think only of themselves.

Then many people have idols; things they value above all others, even, unfortunately more than they value themselves – their self-worth, their honour or their reputation. As has been said before, poets have the ability to say in a few words what it takes others many words to express. 

There is a very appropriate verse in the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam (Omar was an 11^th Century Persian mathematician, astronomer and poet) - which goes as follows (verse 69): 

                                           Indeed the Idols I have loved so long

                                           Have done my Credit in Men’s Eyes much wrong:

                                              Have drown’d my Honour in a shallow cup,

                                          And sold my Reputation for a Song 

In this context it may also be useful to recall the words of an old nursery rhyme – a cautionary tale stressing the importance of doing things properly. By doing things properly, doing them well, unintended consequences are minimised. This is a tale of the “Horse-shoe Nail”:-

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.

For want of a shoe the horse was lost.

For want of a horse the battle was lost.

For want of a battle the Kingdom was lost,

And all for the want of a horse-shoe nail!

The nail represents the “glue” that binds us together as humans. The main component of this “glue” is trust. This is what holds us together as a society – trust. Trust that those we deal with believe in ethics, morality, virtues and hold to their values and will do what they promise; trust that people are honest and will treat others in the way they would like to be treated. When it comes to organisations – be they Governments, financial organisation, multinational news conglomerates, political parties, police departments or families there is a need to understand, today as never before, what it means to provide a duty of care and its corollary – a fiduciary duty. Anything else will lead to chaos, as has been displayed for all to see over the last few years.

This leads back to the title of this post – wisdom in a time of crisis. When good men do nothing; when leaders love their idols more than their fellow beings; when leaders love their idols (whatever they are) more than they respect the need for honesty and morality, we are in real trouble. The horseshoe was lost years ago and we have already lost the horse; if we now lose the battle as well, the kingdom and all of us will be in grave danger. 

And it’s leaders will have drowned their honour in a shallow cup and sold their reputations for a song.

Walk with me for a day

In today's heated emotions about what, if any lives matter, I suggest that this poem written by a member of the "first people" - 65 000 years of history in Australia - is worth reading.

Walk with me for a day

The colour of my skin your eyes do see

Pain dwelling deep within

Afflictions to experience is a mere dream

Walk with me for a day.

Souls of black Australia in the sea of mankind

Neither here nor there

Memories lost of tribal care

Walk with me for a day.

Share my dreaming of this great land

Grassroots problems where did they begin?

Please don’t criticize my countryman

Walk with me for a day.

History’s footprints linger within the depths of time

As its path of destruction lays a snare

Emotions deep in the valley of despair

Walk with me for a day.

Torn and battered weary souls fight on

Equality beats to the sound of progress roar

Reconcile and together we’ll learn

Walk with me for a day.

                                                                        Tania Con-Goo 2005

A good human story

I’m not sure who wrote this, when it was written, even whether it is true or not. However I think in these traumatic COVID19 pandemic times it is worth remembering that we are all human; that we all suffer; that, at the end of our life we will all die. 

But above all we need to remember that we need to be kind. 

  

…. ////….

A nurse took the tired, anxious serviceman to the bedside. "Your
son is here," she said to the old man. She had to repeat the words
several times before the patient's eyes opened.

Heavily sedated because of the pain of his heart attack, he
dimly saw the young uniformed Marine standing outside the
oxygen tent. He reached out his hand. The Marine wrapped his toughened
fingers around the old man's limp ones, squeezing a message of love and
encouragement.

The nurse brought a chair so that the Marine could sit beside
the bed.  All through the night the young Marine sat there in the
poorly lighted ward, holding the old man's hand and offering him words
of love and strength. Occasionally, the nurse suggested that the Marine
move away and rest awhile. He refused. Whenever the nurse came into the ward, the

Marine was oblivious of her and of the night noises of the hospital,
the clanking of the oxygen tank, the laughter of the night staff members
exchanging greetings, the cries and moans of the other patients.

Now and then she heard him say a few gentle words. The
dying man said nothing, only held tightly to his son all through
the night. Along towards dawn, the old man died. The Marine released
the now lifeless hand he had been holding and went to tell the nurse.
While she did what she had to do, he waited.
Finally, she returned. She started to offer words of sympathy,
but the Marine interrupted her.

"Who was that man?" he asked.
The nurse was startled, "He was your father," she answered.
"No, he wasn't," the Marine replied. "I never saw him before
in my life."
"Then why didn't you say something when I took you to him?"
"I knew right away there had been a mistake, but I also knew
he needed his son, and his son just wasn't here. When I realized
that he was too sick to tell whether or not I was his son, knowing how
much he needed me, I stayed."

The next time someone needs you ... just be there. Stay.

We are not human beings going through a temporary spiritual
experience.

We are spiritual beings going through a temporary human
experience.

A good poem I think!

I think you'll enjoy this poem by Brazilian, Mario de Andrade (Sao Paulo 1893-1945), poet, novelist, essayist and musicologist.

I’m not sure if de Andrade wrote the original in English or if in Portuguese, who translated it.

And I certainly know that I have many more years behind me than are ahead!! So I can relate to this poem. Not quite sure about the title though.  

                                                            …///…

MY SOUL HAS A HAT

I counted my years
& realized that I have
Less time to live by,
Than I have lived so far.

I feel like a child who won a pack of candies: at first he ate them with pleasure
But when he realized that there was little left, he began to taste them intensely.

I have no time for endless meetings
where the statutes, rules, procedures & internal regulations are discussed,
knowing that nothing will be done.

I no longer have the patience
To stand absurd people who,
despite their chronological age,
have not grown up.

My time is too short:
I want the essence,
my spirit is in a hurry.
I do not have much candy
In the package anymore.

I want to live next to humans,
very realistic people who know
How to laugh at their mistakes,
Who are not inflated by their own triumphs
& who take responsibility for their actions.
In this way, human dignity is defended
and we live in truth and honesty.

It is the essentials that make life useful.
I want to surround myself with people
who know how to touch the hearts of those whom hard strokes of life
have learned to grow with sweet touches of the soul.

Yes, I'm in a hurry.
I'm in a hurry to live with the intensity that only maturity can give.
I do not intend to waste any of the remaining desserts.

I am sure they will be exquisite,
much more than those eaten so far.
My goal is to reach the end satisfied
and at peace with my loved ones and my conscience.

We have two lives
& the second begins when you realize you only have one.

                                                                        Mario de Andrade

Lying.

Lets start with the simple question: why do people lie? 

The thing is we all lie. I know that. We tell “white” lies to please someone; we lie to get out of trouble – “it wasn’t me, Sir!” And we may lie to serve whatever cause we are promoting.

Sometimes what was written 3000 years ago still has great relevance today. For instance it is reported that Odysseus (he who devised the Trojan Horse that was instrumental in defeating ancient Troy) when asked the question, “Do you not really think it is disgraceful to tell lies?” answered, “No – if safety is what the lie brings”.

What are we to make of that? And whose safety? Safety for the one who lied? 

No one ever likes being lied to – least of all the liar! And I really don’t believe that a person who consistently lies can ever be at ease – they must know that one day they will be caught out. They, metaphorically, must be constantly looking over their shoulder to see how close behind them is “truth”. Likewise no one wants to be known as a liar. Liars will fight tooth and nail to defend their “integrity” and blame others for any falsehoods that may be exposed. This is why liars hate whistleblowers. Whistleblowers generally expose the truth and shine a light on the liar.

But can one ever trust a liar?  

Surely a Democratic Society can only exist if trust (and honesty) is evident? Without trust in government, in financial institutions, in health care, in the judicial system (and institutional religion), I truly believe that society would collapse and chaos would ensue.  As seems to be evident today, however, many people, who should know better, will lie to gain power, pervert justice and pursue the accumulation of wealth (money) that seems to consume their waking moments. In so doing, I believe that, under their feet, such people prepare for themselves a steep inclined plane which propels them down an ever increasing slippery slope, lower and lower into ever more deplorable activities. And more lies. Lies to counteract the original lies.

No matter what legislation is promulgated, laws will never cure cupidity or ethical and moral shortcomings.

Recall that Confucius had this to say about justice and laws some twenty-five centuries ago: 

 “If you govern the people by laws, and keep them in order by penalties, they will avoid the penalties, yet lose their sense of shame. But if you govern them by your moral excellence, and keep them in order by your dutiful conduct, they will retain their sense of shame, and also live up to this standard.”